📅 Original date posted:2015-06-28
📝 Original message:-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
On 06/28/2015 02:55 AM, Aaron Voisine wrote:
> On Sat, Jun 27, 2015 at 3:19 AM, Venzen Khaosan
> <venzen at mail.bihthai.net <mailto:venzen at mail.bihthai.net>> wrote:
>
>
> That is a false assumption. Given the increased adoption of Bitcoin
> by users and businesses during the past year, does the price chart
> reflect greater value or price? Of course not, the price chart is
> at terminal lows. Fact not fiction.
>
>
> You're not taking speculative cycles into account. For most of 2013
> the price was in the $100 range. Adoption as a store-of-value is
> what determines the price over the long term, as with any monetary
> commodity.
Aaron, I am most definitely taking speculative cycles into account - I
write Bitcoin market analysis reports on a daily basis.
Since discussion is exploring notions of "value" and assumptions about
"what increases value" I will post the following.
You're correct to point to the speculative influence, since Bitcoin
having the fundamentals it does, and being a commodity that floats
freely in the market, without centralized control - plus being
unregulated - it is a speculator's wildest dream come true. In this
case its exchange value (to fiat) is based on social mood and
perception and not on underlying (fundamental) value. I think that is
what you imply, too.
What is specifically relevant to the wider discussion, is your mention
of *Commodity Money*, because the term accurately describes a major
facet of Bitcoin's function and role.
Bitcoin's exchange rate, as a commodity money floating freely in the
market, will go up and down according to speculative cycles and we
should conceptually separate its valuation in fiat terms, from its
fundamental value which is: mathematical consensus, cryptographic
transaction security and censorship resistance, etc. These values are
critically reliant on Bitcoin's *degree of decentralization* for them
to remain true and for Bitcoin to retain its meaning, and, therefore,
its value. That is what I point out when I say "greater adoption has
not reflected in the price chart". And that may remain the case for
evermore because the value is in the protocol, the blockchain and its
utility and degree of decentralization, not in the chart or the size
of the user base (however, I'm by no means proposing that the user
base be limited - only that it be grown with primary reference to the
requirements imposed by decentralization).
I argue that we already know what the value of Bitcoin is. In its
current form Bitcoin most likely fulfills 80% or 90% of its eventual
fully evolved value. Increased adoption will not strengthen the
fundamentals, so let's proceed with scaling that will safeguard
Bitcoin's fundamental value and implement protections that ensure
quality of decentralization.
Given the start of a new speculative cycle for Bitcoin and the
possibility of a global liquidity crisis in the coming months or
years, block utilization may increase more rapidly than suggested by
current trends. Utilization may ramp up in a spike, so I agree with
suggestions made here for starting tests of a larger blocksize
(2-8MB), or for speeding up blocktime (whichever is technically
preferred).
Gavin Andresen has committed (if i recall correctly) to tests of 8MB
blocks, so a different size test can be agreed by Core developers.
Once test data and fork outcomes can be reviewed then decision making
has actual parameters to proceed from.
Venzen Khaosan
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Venzen Khaosan [ARCHIVE] /
npub1uu…r4rpf
2023-06-07 15:40:43
in reply to nevent1q…lvuk
Author Public Key
npub1uu2fve28mkg68uequseraz8gee7qg64733lr9r2g4c0xs5pmqnuslr4rpfPublished at
2023-06-07 15:40:43Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2015-06-28\n📝 Original message:-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----\nHash: SHA1\n\nOn 06/28/2015 02:55 AM, Aaron Voisine wrote:\n\u003e On Sat, Jun 27, 2015 at 3:19 AM, Venzen Khaosan\n\u003e \u003cvenzen at mail.bihthai.net \u003cmailto:venzen at mail.bihthai.net\u003e\u003e wrote:\n\u003e \n\u003e \n\u003e That is a false assumption. Given the increased adoption of Bitcoin\n\u003e by users and businesses during the past year, does the price chart \n\u003e reflect greater value or price? Of course not, the price chart is\n\u003e at terminal lows. Fact not fiction.\n\u003e \n\u003e \n\u003e You're not taking speculative cycles into account. For most of 2013\n\u003e the price was in the $100 range. Adoption as a store-of-value is\n\u003e what determines the price over the long term, as with any monetary\n\u003e commodity.\n\nAaron, I am most definitely taking speculative cycles into account - I\nwrite Bitcoin market analysis reports on a daily basis.\n\nSince discussion is exploring notions of \"value\" and assumptions about\n\"what increases value\" I will post the following.\n\nYou're correct to point to the speculative influence, since Bitcoin\nhaving the fundamentals it does, and being a commodity that floats\nfreely in the market, without centralized control - plus being\nunregulated - it is a speculator's wildest dream come true. In this\ncase its exchange value (to fiat) is based on social mood and\nperception and not on underlying (fundamental) value. I think that is\nwhat you imply, too.\n\nWhat is specifically relevant to the wider discussion, is your mention\nof *Commodity Money*, because the term accurately describes a major\nfacet of Bitcoin's function and role.\n\nBitcoin's exchange rate, as a commodity money floating freely in the\nmarket, will go up and down according to speculative cycles and we\nshould conceptually separate its valuation in fiat terms, from its\nfundamental value which is: mathematical consensus, cryptographic\ntransaction security and censorship resistance, etc. These values are\ncritically reliant on Bitcoin's *degree of decentralization* for them\nto remain true and for Bitcoin to retain its meaning, and, therefore,\nits value. That is what I point out when I say \"greater adoption has\nnot reflected in the price chart\". And that may remain the case for\nevermore because the value is in the protocol, the blockchain and its\nutility and degree of decentralization, not in the chart or the size\nof the user base (however, I'm by no means proposing that the user\nbase be limited - only that it be grown with primary reference to the\nrequirements imposed by decentralization).\n\nI argue that we already know what the value of Bitcoin is. In its\ncurrent form Bitcoin most likely fulfills 80% or 90% of its eventual\nfully evolved value. Increased adoption will not strengthen the\nfundamentals, so let's proceed with scaling that will safeguard\nBitcoin's fundamental value and implement protections that ensure\nquality of decentralization.\n\nGiven the start of a new speculative cycle for Bitcoin and the\npossibility of a global liquidity crisis in the coming months or\nyears, block utilization may increase more rapidly than suggested by\ncurrent trends. Utilization may ramp up in a spike, so I agree with\nsuggestions made here for starting tests of a larger blocksize\n(2-8MB), or for speeding up blocktime (whichever is technically\npreferred).\n\nGavin Andresen has committed (if i recall correctly) to tests of 8MB\nblocks, so a different size test can be agreed by Core developers.\nOnce test data and fork outcomes can be reviewed then decision making\nhas actual parameters to proceed from.\n\nVenzen Khaosan\n\n\n-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----\nVersion: GnuPG v1\n\niQEcBAEBAgAGBQJVkCK8AAoJEGwAhlQc8H1m7c0IAKBjj3QHhBh5cqDKrVDpPsfv\nGEdmjC4CVC+OCZR5TjJ71fsbx9s/9Yh1sglKPfKmInBbgUFeLuermpTnAC+GAEq9\nrTPJgGKIIqax2vU9E8fLYrUC/uNk8wdB7PG50tQG+kOWATZOXWimy3Qi1hxOFLNI\nbWhRlwIW4tO9HTz6M1WLNyv6T1G7eaUGskW3xODgmr69/ISbG4f/uv7Yy1leEu+r\n64hwrswBkvIWeLvPJ3lkuA862HZxbLRkoehEpH3ULTUQ3bDJ1kUkSzi9Z4rwOfHG\np02hs69FVrfHckTtV7wQ4owHekiUT8hjob4V/3YrN0/qMGs4JmrxfyerfZ9GQ9o=\n=hc1s\n-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----",
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