"A trade war triggered by President Donald Trump applying a 25 per cent tariff on all imports could cause a $1.4tn hit to the world economy and dramatically drive up US prices, according to a new study modelling the fallout from a retaliatory spiral.
Econometric analysis of a worst-case scenario, where US trade partners hit back against Washington, shows a Trump-inspired tariff war would cause widespread trade disruption, rising prices and falling living standards.
The study by economists at Aston University in the UK examines how a tariff tit-for-tat forces complex shifts in global commerce, starting in North America between the US, Mexico and Canada, before spilling out into Europe and then the rest of world.
It remains highly uncertain at what level Trump will set “reciprocal” tariffs this Wednesday on what he has called “Liberation Day” — and how affected nations and trade blocs will respond.
To depict the potential fallout, the model examines six escalating scenarios, using bilateral trade data from 132 countries in 2023."
https://www.ft.com/content/c21f29d6-f8c5-4596-8652-42c0be96a269
#USA #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar #Protectionism #PoliticalEconomy
Miguel Afonso Caetano /
npub1pw…r95z7
2025-04-04 13:41:39
Author Public Key
npub1pwuvltfvfme0d987k6rs3an6jnv9k2w32zqdlqt5hpy9u3cmv6ps2r95z7Published at
2025-04-04 13:41:39Event JSON
{
"id": "71291ec23d868000ae214c235434d119397d42ecb27e91ecb718fc099172aa0e",
"pubkey": "0bb8cfad2c4ef2f694feb68708f67a94d85b29d15080df8174b8485e471b6683",
"created_at": 1743774099,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"t",
"usa"
],
[
"t",
"trump"
],
[
"t",
"tariffs"
],
[
"t",
"tradewar"
],
[
"t",
"protectionism"
],
[
"t",
"politicaleconomy"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://tldr.nettime.org/users/remixtures/statuses/114279979373990362",
"activitypub"
]
],
"content": "\"A trade war triggered by President Donald Trump applying a 25 per cent tariff on all imports could cause a $1.4tn hit to the world economy and dramatically drive up US prices, according to a new study modelling the fallout from a retaliatory spiral.\n\nEconometric analysis of a worst-case scenario, where US trade partners hit back against Washington, shows a Trump-inspired tariff war would cause widespread trade disruption, rising prices and falling living standards.\n\nThe study by economists at Aston University in the UK examines how a tariff tit-for-tat forces complex shifts in global commerce, starting in North America between the US, Mexico and Canada, before spilling out into Europe and then the rest of world.\n\nIt remains highly uncertain at what level Trump will set “reciprocal” tariffs this Wednesday on what he has called “Liberation Day” — and how affected nations and trade blocs will respond.\nTo depict the potential fallout, the model examines six escalating scenarios, using bilateral trade data from 132 countries in 2023.\"\n\nhttps://www.ft.com/content/c21f29d6-f8c5-4596-8652-42c0be96a269\n\n#USA #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar #Protectionism #PoliticalEconomy",
"sig": "6a5293d6453f716f459e1052144e18ead8e59ab9bdfcdc1c0ced7559d38d7f522ae83876d333bb4eacc2ea31882826b9103a0349ba55a1dec85838c97bd889c8"
}