It's not how I'd characterize it.
The parts I agree with are that 1) there is a $2 trillion T-bill shortage relative to long-duration bonds (and that's why reverse repos are being used so much) and that 2) this ultimately will move to the dollar itself. The way to save the banks is to hurt the dollar, and if savers change their view that the Fed will get under control, then it would represent a sizable regime change in markets.
But I don't view it as correct to say that the main problem is a collateral shortage. The main problem is that rates rose at a record pace, which means banks' bonds fell in price at a record pace. Meanwhile, the Fed is sucking total liquidity out of the system, and money is moving from deposits to money markets or T-bills, which leaves banks vulnerable to having to sell their bonds and realize the losses (or turn to use the BTFP which is a very expensive funding source relative to deposits).
LynAlden / Lyn Alden
npub1a2…cw83a
2023-04-06 13:52:08
in reply to nevent1q…sueu
Author Public Key
npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83aPublished at
2023-04-06 13:52:08Event JSON
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"content": "It's not how I'd characterize it.\n\nThe parts I agree with are that 1) there is a $2 trillion T-bill shortage relative to long-duration bonds (and that's why reverse repos are being used so much) and that 2) this ultimately will move to the dollar itself. The way to save the banks is to hurt the dollar, and if savers change their view that the Fed will get under control, then it would represent a sizable regime change in markets.\n\nBut I don't view it as correct to say that the main problem is a collateral shortage. The main problem is that rates rose at a record pace, which means banks' bonds fell in price at a record pace. Meanwhile, the Fed is sucking total liquidity out of the system, and money is moving from deposits to money markets or T-bills, which leaves banks vulnerable to having to sell their bonds and realize the losses (or turn to use the BTFP which is a very expensive funding source relative to deposits).",
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