Probability fact many struggle to reason with:
If someone says there's a 99.999% chance something will happen, and then it doesn't happen - that person may have been exactly right about the probability.
You can't look at a single poll.
You can't look at a single market.
You can't look at a single event.
Forecasting ability must be measured across a collection of events. See Brier scores.
nick
npub1j8…g26k2
2025-01-10 08:40:56
Author Public Key
npub1j8d6h8mzvc8f2fvysrf09nlkmn7m2ylj32zl5na4tm5e8fd5dqysrg26k2Published at
2025-01-10 08:40:56Event JSON
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"pubkey": "91dbab9f62660e95258480d2f2cff6dcfdb513f28a85fa4fb55ee993a5b46809",
"created_at": 1736498456,
"kind": 1,
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[
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"content": "Probability fact many struggle to reason with:\n\nIf someone says there's a 99.999% chance something will happen, and then it doesn't happen - that person may have been exactly right about the probability.\n\nYou can't look at a single poll.\nYou can't look at a single market.\nYou can't look at a single event.\n\nForecasting ability must be measured across a collection of events. See Brier scores.",
"sig": "f64161716b2bf5c61278ea9faa49db58396b6d99c42118a5cfb29e94b5196aa60c8fd8ec02db3a3fbe654d7c10b4f3517bac89599c40890021b44383c9daed12"
}