I have a thesis that we will experience a recession and likely set new low prices in that time. The timeline is unclear, though historical modeling would suggest it comes later in 2023 or early 24.
Bitcoin has not yet experienced a real recessionary downturn, and this environment feels like one where previously reliable cyclical patterns are under attack. We are in a regime shift, globally, and these processes are volatile in nature.
But even with that thesis, I did not miss the opportunity to stack BTC heavily below $20k. When price is below Realized Price, below the 200-week average, when every on-chain indicator has signaled bottom, that means you should be stacking. I did not hesitate. It is what the bear market calls for. The corn I acquired at the recent cycle lows will set the foundation for the next epoch of wealth accrual. If we make new low prices, I will step up to the plate again. I remain flexible, open minded, and optimistic.
No matter what my medium term thesis is, the endgame is unchanged. Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet on the perpetual profligacy of the fiat system. The destiny of that system is singular and crystalline: debase until bust.
In the rubble of the crumbling edifice of money by decree, empty hands will reach for hard assets, as they have for centuries... There they will find the world's first borderless, decentralized, censorship resistant, unconfiscatable digital bearer asset. Where previous generations sought scarce physical commodities like rice, grain, silks, and precious metals, the next generation will find digital scarcity in Bitcoin.
TXMC / irc://TX
npub1xu…rukq8
2023-03-04 22:28:14
Author Public Key
npub1xu6eayhvuhr0er2h2h0qpr8tvfcgpzupfhw4zlfca04ty6vrdjtqlrukq8Published at
2023-03-04 22:28:14Event JSON
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"pubkey": "37359e92ece5c6fc8d5755de008ceb6270808b814ddd517d38ebeab269836c96",
"created_at": 1677968894,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "I have a thesis that we will experience a recession and likely set new low prices in that time. The timeline is unclear, though historical modeling would suggest it comes later in 2023 or early 24.\n\nBitcoin has not yet experienced a real recessionary downturn, and this environment feels like one where previously reliable cyclical patterns are under attack. We are in a regime shift, globally, and these processes are volatile in nature.\n\nBut even with that thesis, I did not miss the opportunity to stack BTC heavily below $20k. When price is below Realized Price, below the 200-week average, when every on-chain indicator has signaled bottom, that means you should be stacking. I did not hesitate. It is what the bear market calls for. The corn I acquired at the recent cycle lows will set the foundation for the next epoch of wealth accrual. If we make new low prices, I will step up to the plate again. I remain flexible, open minded, and optimistic.\n\nNo matter what my medium term thesis is, the endgame is unchanged. Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet on the perpetual profligacy of the fiat system. The destiny of that system is singular and crystalline: debase until bust.\n\nIn the rubble of the crumbling edifice of money by decree, empty hands will reach for hard assets, as they have for centuries... There they will find the world's first borderless, decentralized, censorship resistant, unconfiscatable digital bearer asset. Where previous generations sought scarce physical commodities like rice, grain, silks, and precious metals, the next generation will find digital scarcity in Bitcoin.",
"sig": "20d4a5f47eebb6261d1e08a982aa4e68aabbfc8a8e755df40151282ef72ca1a6c20f7cf430f98e53bae6becbaea75c8373d93f53c680c89b86bfdcc0493614d1"
}