Mags on Nostr: The wars of the 21st century: kinetic warfare is moving to economic & digital ...

The wars of the 21st century: kinetic warfare is moving to economic & digital battlefields. Blockspace & hashrate wars join the ranks of trade, cyber, & AI compute warfare.

Historically, power was contested through kinetic wars—wars that required the mobilization of physical resources like soldiers & weapons. However, battles for dominance are shifting, reflecting the growing importance of economic dependencies, intelligence, compute, financial sovereignty, & corresponding infrastructure as the new tools of war.

𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘀: Nations weaponize economic dependencies (e.g., energy, rare earth minerals, technology exports) using financial & regulatory tools. Economic leverage is used as a weapon & trade wars can escalate into broader supply chain disruptions.

𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘀: the battle for AI dominance has created a race to secure computational resources, talent, & data (which becomes a strategic asset)

𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 & 𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘀: Nations, companies, & even individuals are competing to dominate the infrastructure that powers decentralized networks (Bitcoin). Block space (the ability to include transactions in a block) is a scarce resource & nations or corporations seek control to gain economic leverage or censor financial activities. Nations controlling substantial hashrate can ensure uninterrupted access to blockspace.

𝗖𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘀: Nations are shoring up digital tools to attack or defend critical infrastructure (financial systems, energy grids, communications networks), steal information, or undermine adversaries.

The battle for dominance in these arenas will define the next century of geopolitics, shaping a future where the strongest actors may no longer be those with the largest armies. In cyber warfare, AI, & blockspace wars, private actors (companies, collectives) can be as powerful as governments. This changing landscape can allow smaller players (e.g., small nations, private corporations, or even individuals) to punch above their weight. For example, a small nation with abundant hydroelectric power like Bhutan can become a Bitcoin mining powerhouse.

The control of scarce resources remains central to these conflicts -- whether it’s compute power, rare earth minerals, cyber talent, or blockspace. Scarcity creates choke points that can be exploited for geopolitical leverage. Geopolitical winners will be those who can rapidly adapt while securing their physical & digital resource base.