No, #bitcoin drawdowns are not going to get significantly smaller from this cycle onwards because the majority of capital is now institutional and institutions are "intent on just buying and holding".
How much more evidence do you need that institutions are even more degen than your average BitMEX 100x pyjama trader? They will buy and sell any trash in the tradfi markets to make a quick buck.
They have no conviction in bitcoin. They are not holders of last resort. They are staffed by midwits who are prone to panic in mobs.
And perhaps most importantly, they are the most likely, in their hubris, to fall for narratives that they themselves have brought about the end of cycle drawdowns, conversely making them *more likely* to overextend.
The only reason you hold bitcoin through a bear market is because you have conviction in what bitcoin is and what it does. The people working for institutions don’t have this. Less than 1% of them get it. And even those that do have not been around bitcoin long enough to resist the temptation to play the market—"Ima gonna buy back lower!"
Those thinking that monumental market crashes are behind us imagine everything stays the same as it is now except the price goes up. But that's not how it works. Think of all the events that could emerge—self-custody bans, bans on institutional holdings due to climate change, a stablecoin accused of printing billions, a major exchange hacked or blows up, or another fork war. Even if these things don't ultimately impact bitcoin's value prop, imagine the narratives that would emerge. Compliant normies at institutions are going to see any one of these things and lose their marbles.
I can see the attraction of imagining that it's mostly up only now the suits are here, but that's not how it's going to work.
chefindex / Derek Orrell
npub18t…u4usd
2024-03-05 16:14:06
in reply to nevent1q…lnc2
Author Public Key
npub18ts7s549jm9t0pv4jusggsud0cpvfk72dw8ynxkchd4evvwwv9dqlu4usdPublished at
2024-03-05 16:14:06Event JSON
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"content": "No, #bitcoin drawdowns are not going to get significantly smaller from this cycle onwards because the majority of capital is now institutional and institutions are \"intent on just buying and holding\". \n\nHow much more evidence do you need that institutions are even more degen than your average BitMEX 100x pyjama trader? They will buy and sell any trash in the tradfi markets to make a quick buck. \n\nThey have no conviction in bitcoin. They are not holders of last resort. They are staffed by midwits who are prone to panic in mobs.\n\nAnd perhaps most importantly, they are the most likely, in their hubris, to fall for narratives that they themselves have brought about the end of cycle drawdowns, conversely making them *more likely* to overextend. \n\nThe only reason you hold bitcoin through a bear market is because you have conviction in what bitcoin is and what it does. The people working for institutions don’t have this. Less than 1% of them get it. And even those that do have not been around bitcoin long enough to resist the temptation to play the market—\"Ima gonna buy back lower!\"\n\nThose thinking that monumental market crashes are behind us imagine everything stays the same as it is now except the price goes up. But that's not how it works. Think of all the events that could emerge—self-custody bans, bans on institutional holdings due to climate change, a stablecoin accused of printing billions, a major exchange hacked or blows up, or another fork war. Even if these things don't ultimately impact bitcoin's value prop, imagine the narratives that would emerge. Compliant normies at institutions are going to see any one of these things and lose their marbles.\n\nI can see the attraction of imagining that it's mostly up only now the suits are here, but that's not how it's going to work.",
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