The US Congressional Budget Office projects debt as a percentage to GDP to hit 119% in 10 years and 136% in 20 years.
The wild roller-coaster ride for US Fed 10-year rate indicates the underlying trend within the calculation of risk; "will the rule of law or will the influence of the White House be the prime denominator to sidestep key office holders within independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve?".
It is notable that Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch had already made cuts in US credit ratings based on the risk of debt-to-GDP sustainability.
Recent downgrades were in 2023 (Moody's AAA rating remains, but outlook downgraded from stable to negative, S&P and Fitch both have since cut US rating from AAA to AA+, based on the same risk factor).
Within the broadstrokes of this all encompassing and looming ratio, what is now becoming clear, is effective political duress or seasonal interference in organs of the Federal union that may impair its effective ability to act within their respective mandated functional roles.
The other highly significant factor that has not received due scrutiny, is in the area of workforce productivity, which is correlated to the overall health of the American people.
The data from the American USGCRP, EPA, points to a very clear effect of climate-induced exacerbation to the severity of chronic health symptoms arising from Lyme disease.
This translates to higher Medicare and Medicaid claims. Projections by 2030 shows that this will be 21% of GDP versus 15% for defense.
By 2040, this will be 23% of GDP versus 16% for defense. Insurance giant Allianz SE and AXA are already looking at uninsurable climate risks such as the recent LA fires.
What many in-house risk and actuary specialists are not publicly telling you, is the size and scope of the number of climate-driven serious health-impairements.
These are not yippy perspectives, just look at the hard data and run them through American-owned AI tools and look at the results.
Perhaps this is the ultimate act of efficiency in governmental analytics.
US Congressional Budget Office >
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61187
Financial Report of the United States Government >
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/mda-unsustainable-fiscal-path.html
US EPA >
https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health
Allianz piece from Sustainability Magazine >
https://sustainabilitymag.com/articles/allianz-how-climate-change-is-unravelling-insurance-markets
Assessment of Climate Change on Human Health in the US >
https://www.globalchange.gov/reports/impacts-climate-change-human-health-united-states-scientific-assessment
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