solar forcing of federal funds rate? this paper seems to suggest this...
LynAlden (npub1a2c…w83a) you may find this interesting
in english first:
TY - BOOK
AU - Belkin, Vladimir
PY - 2025/01/04
SP -
N2 - The report uses a methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of the solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of the effective rates on US federal funds. The values of the correlation coefficients of the ordinal numbers of the years of the average solar cycle and the average rates on federal funds were equal to 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363 and -0.996221106, respectively, for the 1st-5th, 5th-7th, 7th-10th and 10th-12th years of the solar cycles for 1955-2024.
The Fed rate is minimal either in the year of the extreme of the geomagnetic index Ap (this is the first year of the solar cycle) or in the year following it (this is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a reaction to the extreme of the Ap index.
The forecast value of the effective rate on federal funds for the year 2025 is 3.92%, and for the year 2026 - 2.81%. The report uses the methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of effective rates on the U.S. federal funds. The values of correlation coefficients of ordinal numbers of years of the average solar cycle and average federal funds rates were found to be 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363, and -0.996221106, respectively, for years 1-5, 5-7, 7-10, and 10-12 of solar cycles for 1955-2024.
The Fed Funds rate is minimized either in the year of the Ap geomagnetic index extremum (which is the first year of the solar cycle) or the year following it (which is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a response to the Ap index extremum.
The projected value of the effective federal funds rate for 2025 is 3.92% and for 2026 is 2.81%.
T1 - FEDERAL FUND RATES AND SOLAR ACTIVITY (1955-2024): EVIDENCE OF A VERY HIGH CORRELATION
VL -
DO - 10.13140/RG.2.2.22424.10245/4
ER -
and then in original russki:
TY - BOOK
AU - Belkin, Vladimir
PY - 2025/01/04
SP -
N2 - В докладе используется методологический подход, основанный У. С. Джевонсом и А. Л. Чижевским. Годы солнечных циклов были пронумерованы по установленному в астрофизике Солнца порядке, сгруппированы и сопоставлены со средними арифметическими значениями эффективных ставок по федеральным фондам США. Значения коэффициентов корреляции порядковых номеров лет среднего солнечного цикла и средних ставок по федеральным фондам оказалось равным 0,994041888, -0,99968001, 0,986985363 и -0,996221106, соответственно, для 1-5, 5-7, 7-10 и 10-12-го лет солнечных циклов за 1955-2024 гг.
Ставка ФРС минимальна либо в год экстремума геомагнитного индекса Ap (это первый год солнечного цикла) либо на следующий год после него (это седьмой и двенадцатый годы солнечного цикла) как реакция на экстремум индекса Ap.
Прогнозное значение эффективной ставки по федеральным фондам для 2025-го года равняется 3,92%, а для 2026-го года 2,81%. The report uses the methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of effective rates on the U.S. federal funds. The values of correlation coefficients of ordinal numbers of years of the average solar cycle and average federal funds rates were found to be 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363, and -0.996221106, respectively, for years 1-5, 5-7, 7-10, and 10-12 of solar cycles for 1955-2024.
The Fed Funds rate is minimized either in the year of the Ap geomagnetic index extremum (which is the first year of the solar cycle) or the year following it (which is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a response to the Ap index extremum.
The projected value of the effective federal funds rate for 2025 is 3.92% and for 2026 is 2.81%.
T1 - СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2024): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ
VL -
DO - 10.13140/RG.2.2.22424.10245/4
ER -
mleku
npub1fj…mleku
2025-01-10 13:04:20
Author Public Key
npub1fjqqy4a93z5zsjwsfxqhc2764kvykfdyttvldkkkdera8dr78vhsmmlekuPublished at
2025-01-10 13:04:20Event JSON
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"content": "solar forcing of federal funds rate? this paper seems to suggest this... \n\nnostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a you may find this interesting\n\nin english first:\n\nTY - BOOK\nAU - Belkin, Vladimir\nPY - 2025/01/04\nSP -\nN2 - The report uses a methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of the solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of the effective rates on US federal funds. The values of the correlation coefficients of the ordinal numbers of the years of the average solar cycle and the average rates on federal funds were equal to 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363 and -0.996221106, respectively, for the 1st-5th, 5th-7th, 7th-10th and 10th-12th years of the solar cycles for 1955-2024.\nThe Fed rate is minimal either in the year of the extreme of the geomagnetic index Ap (this is the first year of the solar cycle) or in the year following it (this is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a reaction to the extreme of the Ap index.\nThe forecast value of the effective rate on federal funds for the year 2025 is 3.92%, and for the year 2026 - 2.81%. The report uses the methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of effective rates on the U.S. federal funds. The values of correlation coefficients of ordinal numbers of years of the average solar cycle and average federal funds rates were found to be 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363, and -0.996221106, respectively, for years 1-5, 5-7, 7-10, and 10-12 of solar cycles for 1955-2024.\nThe Fed Funds rate is minimized either in the year of the Ap geomagnetic index extremum (which is the first year of the solar cycle) or the year following it (which is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a response to the Ap index extremum.\nThe projected value of the effective federal funds rate for 2025 is 3.92% and for 2026 is 2.81%.\nT1 - FEDERAL FUND RATES AND SOLAR ACTIVITY (1955-2024): EVIDENCE OF A VERY HIGH CORRELATION\nVL -\nDO - 10.13140/RG.2.2.22424.10245/4\nER -\n\nand then in original russki:\n\nTY - BOOK\nAU - Belkin, Vladimir\nPY - 2025/01/04\nSP - \nN2 - В докладе используется методологический подход, основанный У. С. Джевонсом и А. Л. Чижевским. Годы солнечных циклов были пронумерованы по установленному в астрофизике Солнца порядке, сгруппированы и сопоставлены со средними арифметическими значениями эффективных ставок по федеральным фондам США. Значения коэффициентов корреляции порядковых номеров лет среднего солнечного цикла и средних ставок по федеральным фондам оказалось равным 0,994041888, -0,99968001, 0,986985363 и -0,996221106, соответственно, для 1-5, 5-7, 7-10 и 10-12-го лет солнечных циклов за 1955-2024 гг.\nСтавка ФРС минимальна либо в год экстремума геомагнитного индекса Ap (это первый год солнечного цикла) либо на следующий год после него (это седьмой и двенадцатый годы солнечного цикла) как реакция на экстремум индекса Ap. \nПрогнозное значение эффективной ставки по федеральным фондам для 2025-го года равняется 3,92%, а для 2026-го года 2,81%. The report uses the methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped and compared with the arithmetic mean values of effective rates on the U.S. federal funds. The values of correlation coefficients of ordinal numbers of years of the average solar cycle and average federal funds rates were found to be 0.994041888, -0.99968001, 0.986985363, and -0.996221106, respectively, for years 1-5, 5-7, 7-10, and 10-12 of solar cycles for 1955-2024.\nThe Fed Funds rate is minimized either in the year of the Ap geomagnetic index extremum (which is the first year of the solar cycle) or the year following it (which is the seventh and twelfth years of the solar cycle) as a response to the Ap index extremum. \nThe projected value of the effective federal funds rate for 2025 is 3.92% and for 2026 is 2.81%.\nT1 - СТАВКИ ПО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНЫМ ФОНДАМ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ (1955-2024): ДОКАЗАТЕЛЬСТВО ОЧЕНЬ ВЫСОКОЙ КОРРЕЛЯЦИИ\nVL - \nDO - 10.13140/RG.2.2.22424.10245/4\nER - \n",
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