The potential for a competitive market in technology build up and a bull case for TSMC
This is an interesting economic perspective on the technology industry today. Brad posits that AI build out is currently willing to pay an nvidia tax today
Once upon a time nearly everyone in tech paid the IBM mainframe tax. Then nearly everyone in tech paid the Microsoft-Intel DOS-Windows86 tax. Now nearly everybody pays the Google-Facebook-Amazon advertising tax, or the Apple iPhone AppStore tax, or both. And so everyone in tech today, perhaps especially the collectors of earlier taxes, desperately wants to avoid having to pay any future NVIDIA-OpenAI taxes for long. But they do so while everybody except Apple, incuding Google, is frantically paying an immense NVIDIA tax now.
Are the Tech Titans Mighty Enough to Break the Threatened NVIDIA-OpenAI Fetters?
This is despite efforts from every one of these infra build outs as well as frontier model generating companies also investing in their own efforts to move away from the Nvidia monopoly.
Pausing to build an alternative to NVIDIA and its CUDA, or to wait for a cheaper good-enough alternative to emerge, seems overwhelmingly risky in a tech world in which, in the past, too often first movers have become the last effective movers.
This is causing them to focus on the build out fueled by a fear to not be left behind. Now comes the interesting part – Brad posits that there are no “secret sauces” when it comes to any of the frontier models besides “time” and “compute”
This leads to a) why isn’t TSMC benefiting from the valuation that nvidia is able to get? Is CUDA that much better at harnessing the power of chip design from nvidia and b) when intel / samsung / qualcomm / some one else close the gap to nvidia’s design, there’s going to be some shifts to be seen.
#ai #chips #llm #mamlm
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2024-11-13 01:14:04
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npub1g2fyrnzsx8anvenmv3rahuueqvasyumj2dd4l6rx63hjcpleyctqnku9kfPublished at
2024-11-13 01:14:04Event JSON
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"content": "The potential for a competitive market in technology build up and a bull case for TSMC\n\nThis is an interesting economic perspective on the technology industry today. Brad posits that AI build out is currently willing to pay an nvidia tax today\n\nOnce upon a time nearly everyone in tech paid the IBM mainframe tax. Then nearly everyone in tech paid the Microsoft-Intel DOS-Windows86 tax. Now nearly everybody pays the Google-Facebook-Amazon advertising tax, or the Apple iPhone AppStore tax, or both. And so everyone in tech today, perhaps especially the collectors of earlier taxes, desperately wants to avoid having to pay any future NVIDIA-OpenAI taxes for long. But they do so while everybody except Apple, incuding Google, is frantically paying an immense NVIDIA tax now.\n\nAre the Tech Titans Mighty Enough to Break the Threatened NVIDIA-OpenAI Fetters?\n\nThis is despite efforts from every one of these infra build outs as well as frontier model generating companies also investing in their own efforts to move away from the Nvidia monopoly. \n\nPausing to build an alternative to NVIDIA and its CUDA, or to wait for a cheaper good-enough alternative to emerge, seems overwhelmingly risky in a tech world in which, in the past, too often first movers have become the last effective movers.\n\nThis is causing them to focus on the build out fueled by a fear to not be left behind. Now comes the interesting part – Brad posits that there are no “secret sauces” when it comes to any of the frontier models besides “time” and “compute” \n\nThis leads to a) why isn’t TSMC benefiting from the valuation that nvidia is able to get? Is CUDA that much better at harnessing the power of chip design from nvidia and b) when intel / samsung / qualcomm / some one else close the gap to nvidia’s design, there’s going to be some shifts to be seen. \n\n#ai #chips #llm #mamlm",
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