Beat Chris Liss 1
I did my first NFBC Beat Chris Liss league this afternoon — it’s the usual $350 buy-in, $150K grand-prize, 12-team variety.
One wrinkle is I made my own cheat sheet, but didn’t look at any projections or ADP, only news and notes on RotoWire. The idea was to think for myself, avoid the group-think that kicks in once people come to a consensus about where players should be drafted.
But in the end I was done in by my own greed and stupidity. I have Jackson Chourio rated as my No. 13 OF, a fourth or fifth-round pick, but I saw in the draft room his ADP was 147, so I waited on him well after many players below him on my sheet had gone, thinking I could get him at pick 128. He went 126, and that put me on tilt for about five rounds.
Of course, Chourio is at ADP 130 over the last week, and my not looking at ADP meant I hadn’t printed out recent ADP, which meant I was looking at old ADP and cutting it much closer than I would have. Basically if I were going to do this experiment for real, I would have taken him instead of Josh Lowe — in the fifth round — but it was impossible not to know he’d be there afterwards, only not as long as I had guessed.
(I should have realized ADP went back to October, before he signed his contract virtually guaranteeing he opens the season on the roster, and purposely drafted him earlier. But as it was February 7, I figured the ADP on the site was close enough. The whole thing was very annoying and undercut the purpose of the whole exercise.)
That said I’m otherwise happy with this team. I skimped on second closer per the plan and waited on catcher and MI too.
Here are the overall results:
1.8 Corbin Carroll — I expected to get Fernando Tatis, and failing that, Juan Soto who I love on the Yankees this year. But there was Carroll, a massive source of steals as well, and I snap-called it at pick 8.
2.5 Bryce Harper — This was a boring pick, but I wanted first basemen and outfielders early, and Harper even runs a little. I had considered Corbin Burnes, who I like on the Orioles, but two Corbins in two picks would be excessive.
3.8 Zac Gallen — He was the next pitcher on my board — consistent, reliable and with a low walk rate.
4.5 Tyler Glasnow — I was set to take Michael Harris, but got sniped, so I was about to take Max Fried, the next pitcher on my board, when Greg Ambrosius mentioned Glasnow, and I remembered thinking about him yesterday as a potential league winner. So I jumped him past Fried.
5.8 Josh Lowe — I wanted more OFs, and while Chourio was top on my board, I knew I could wait on him, and Lowe was next.
6.5 Manny Machado — Corners and OF early, and I wanted some more pop as Carroll is not a huge HR guy for a first rounder.
7.8 Jordan Walker — Again, I would have taken Chourio, but knew I could wait. Walker is 6-6, 250, so the power could be there in Year 2, and he’s a decent source of average and even runs a little.
8.5 Paul Sewald — Closers were flying off the board, and Sewald is a good pitcher. I wanted to have one solid closer and speculate on the others.
9.8 Ketel Marte — He’s a good source of pop and average from second base, and I had him ahead of some of the guys who were already drafted. One of the drafters commented how I was taking too many Diamondbacks (four.)
10.5 Sonny Gray — I got sniped on Justin Verlander by half a round, well ahead of his ADP, and that should have been my cue to take Chourio. But I got greedy, took Gray and thought I could wait another round.
11.8 Carlos Rodon — I was tilted. I like Rodon to bounce back, and I took him aggressively ahead of ADP to make up for the Chourio miss.
12.5 Thairo Estrada — He’s solid, and he qualifies at 2B and SS. I was still tilted and just took a player near the top of my MI rankings.
13.8 Alec Bohm — He was my top remaining 3B, though I realized later I had Josh Naylor slightly ahead of him at 1B and could have taken him. I like the quality corners. and he’s a nice stack with Harper.
14.5 Mitch Garver — Catchers were flying off, and I liked getting one who doesn’t actually have to play catcher. Garver can get a lot of at-bats as a full-time DH.
15.8 Shota Imanaga — I was still tilted, and just took an interesting player in a decent situation.
16.5 Chas McCormick — He was far and away the highest remaining OF on my board. I was still tilted.
17.8 Yu Darvish — I jumped him 50 spots per ADP because I love old pitchers coming off mediocre seasons. I felt good about this and finally untilted.
18.5 Jarred Kelenic — Another pick I’m happy about. I have him ranked higher than ADP — think there’s real upside now that he’s free from the Mariners organization.
19.8 David Robertson — I was happy to get an old warhorse possible closer for a good team. I don’t trust Jose LeClerc, either.
20.5 Yuki Matsui — He’s in the saves mix in San Diego, and Roberto Suarez has never been a closer. My draft was going a lot better now.
21.8 Kenta Maeda — Another veteran pitcher I was targeting.
22.5 Giancarlo Stanton — He should hit in the heart of the Yankees order, he just has to be 100 percent healthy for a few months to earn this price.
23.8 Sal Frelick — The Brewers are rebuilding, so he should play. Good average and steals are possible, and he’s in a good park.
24.5 Jorge Polanco — I probably should have taken Jonathan India a couple rounds earlier, but when I missed on him, I waited for Polanco who still has some pop and could steal 5-10 bags in a full season.
25.8 Frankie Montas — I thought he was worth a gamble at this point. Just looking for upside.
26.5 Danny Jansen — A second catcher with some pop
27.8 Jordan Westburg — I needed a backup corner and middle and Westburg does both. He’s also a decent prospect on a good team.
28.5 Gavin Stone — He’s a prospect who could get a shot early in the year with the best team in baseball. You never know when the light bulb might go on.
29.8 Woo-Suk Go — Another potential closer for the Padres. If he sucks, he can go too.
30.5 J.P. Crawford — This is why I like to wait on middle infield. He’s a full-time leadoff guy with some pop and great plate skills for a good team.
Roster By Position
C Mitch Garver/Danny Jansen
1B Bryce Harper
2B Ketel Marte
3B Manny Machado
SS Thairo Estrada
CI Alec Bohm
MI Jorge Polanco
OF Corbin Carroll/Josh Lowe/Jordan Walker/Chas McCormick/Jarred Kelenic
UT Giancarlo Stanton
SP Zac Gallen/Tyler Glasnow/Sonny Gray/Carlos Rodon/Shota Imanaga/Yu Darvish
RP Paul Sewald/David Robertson/Yuki Matsui
B Kenta Maeda/Sal Frelick/Frankie Montas/Jordan Westburg/Gavin Stone/Woo-Suk Go/J.P. Crawford
Real Man Sports /
npub1dw…nqfxe
2024-02-07 23:08:44
Author Public Key
npub1dwhr8j9uy6ju2uu39t6tj6mw76gztr4rwdd6jr9qtkdh5crjwt5q2nqfxePublished at
2024-02-07 23:08:44Event JSON
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"content": "Beat Chris Liss 1\n\nI did my first NFBC Beat Chris Liss league this afternoon — it’s the usual $350 buy-in, $150K grand-prize, 12-team variety.\n\nOne wrinkle is I made my own cheat sheet, but didn’t look at any projections or ADP, only news and notes on RotoWire. The idea was to think for myself, avoid the group-think that kicks in once people come to a consensus about where players should be drafted.\n\nBut in the end I was done in by my own greed and stupidity. I have Jackson Chourio rated as my No. 13 OF, a fourth or fifth-round pick, but I saw in the draft room his ADP was 147, so I waited on him well after many players below him on my sheet had gone, thinking I could get him at pick 128. He went 126, and that put me on tilt for about five rounds.\n\nOf course, Chourio is at ADP 130 over the last week, and my not looking at ADP meant I hadn’t printed out recent ADP, which meant I was looking at old ADP and cutting it much closer than I would have. Basically if I were going to do this experiment for real, I would have taken him instead of Josh Lowe — in the fifth round — but it was impossible not to know he’d be there afterwards, only not as long as I had guessed.\n\n(I should have realized ADP went back to October, before he signed his contract virtually guaranteeing he opens the season on the roster, and purposely drafted him earlier. But as it was February 7, I figured the ADP on the site was close enough. The whole thing was very annoying and undercut the purpose of the whole exercise.)\n\nThat said I’m otherwise happy with this team. I skimped on second closer per the plan and waited on catcher and MI too.\n\nHere are the overall results:\n\n1.8 Corbin Carroll — I expected to get Fernando Tatis, and failing that, Juan Soto who I love on the Yankees this year. But there was Carroll, a massive source of steals as well, and I snap-called it at pick 8.\n\n2.5 Bryce Harper — This was a boring pick, but I wanted first basemen and outfielders early, and Harper even runs a little. I had considered Corbin Burnes, who I like on the Orioles, but two Corbins in two picks would be excessive.\n\n3.8 Zac Gallen — He was the next pitcher on my board — consistent, reliable and with a low walk rate.\n\n4.5 Tyler Glasnow — I was set to take Michael Harris, but got sniped, so I was about to take Max Fried, the next pitcher on my board, when Greg Ambrosius mentioned Glasnow, and I remembered thinking about him yesterday as a potential league winner. So I jumped him past Fried.\n\n5.8 Josh Lowe — I wanted more OFs, and while Chourio was top on my board, I knew I could wait on him, and Lowe was next.\n\n6.5 Manny Machado — Corners and OF early, and I wanted some more pop as Carroll is not a huge HR guy for a first rounder.\n\n7.8 Jordan Walker — Again, I would have taken Chourio, but knew I could wait. Walker is 6-6, 250, so the power could be there in Year 2, and he’s a decent source of average and even runs a little.\n\n8.5 Paul Sewald — Closers were flying off the board, and Sewald is a good pitcher. I wanted to have one solid closer and speculate on the others.\n\n9.8 Ketel Marte — He’s a good source of pop and average from second base, and I had him ahead of some of the guys who were already drafted. One of the drafters commented how I was taking too many Diamondbacks (four.)\n\n10.5 Sonny Gray — I got sniped on Justin Verlander by half a round, well ahead of his ADP, and that should have been my cue to take Chourio. But I got greedy, took Gray and thought I could wait another round.\n\n11.8 Carlos Rodon — I was tilted. I like Rodon to bounce back, and I took him aggressively ahead of ADP to make up for the Chourio miss.\n\n12.5 Thairo Estrada — He’s solid, and he qualifies at 2B and SS. I was still tilted and just took a player near the top of my MI rankings.\n\n13.8 Alec Bohm — He was my top remaining 3B, though I realized later I had Josh Naylor slightly ahead of him at 1B and could have taken him. I like the quality corners. and he’s a nice stack with Harper.\n\n14.5 Mitch Garver — Catchers were flying off, and I liked getting one who doesn’t actually have to play catcher. Garver can get a lot of at-bats as a full-time DH.\n\n15.8 Shota Imanaga — I was still tilted, and just took an interesting player in a decent situation.\n\n16.5 Chas McCormick — He was far and away the highest remaining OF on my board. I was still tilted.\n\n17.8 Yu Darvish — I jumped him 50 spots per ADP because I love old pitchers coming off mediocre seasons. I felt good about this and finally untilted.\n\n18.5 Jarred Kelenic — Another pick I’m happy about. I have him ranked higher than ADP — think there’s real upside now that he’s free from the Mariners organization.\n\n19.8 David Robertson — I was happy to get an old warhorse possible closer for a good team. I don’t trust Jose LeClerc, either.\n\n20.5 Yuki Matsui — He’s in the saves mix in San Diego, and Roberto Suarez has never been a closer. My draft was going a lot better now.\n\n21.8 Kenta Maeda — Another veteran pitcher I was targeting.\n\n22.5 Giancarlo Stanton — He should hit in the heart of the Yankees order, he just has to be 100 percent healthy for a few months to earn this price.\n\n23.8 Sal Frelick — The Brewers are rebuilding, so he should play. Good average and steals are possible, and he’s in a good park.\n\n24.5 Jorge Polanco — I probably should have taken Jonathan India a couple rounds earlier, but when I missed on him, I waited for Polanco who still has some pop and could steal 5-10 bags in a full season.\n\n25.8 Frankie Montas — I thought he was worth a gamble at this point. Just looking for upside.\n\n26.5 Danny Jansen — A second catcher with some pop\n\n27.8 Jordan Westburg — I needed a backup corner and middle and Westburg does both. He’s also a decent prospect on a good team.\n\n28.5 Gavin Stone — He’s a prospect who could get a shot early in the year with the best team in baseball. You never know when the light bulb might go on.\n\n29.8 Woo-Suk Go — Another potential closer for the Padres. If he sucks, he can go too.\n\n30.5 J.P. Crawford — This is why I like to wait on middle infield. He’s a full-time leadoff guy with some pop and great plate skills for a good team.\n\nRoster By Position\n\nC Mitch Garver/Danny Jansen\n\n1B Bryce Harper\n\n2B Ketel Marte\n\n3B Manny Machado\n\nSS Thairo Estrada\n\nCI Alec Bohm\n\nMI Jorge Polanco\n\nOF Corbin Carroll/Josh Lowe/Jordan Walker/Chas McCormick/Jarred Kelenic\n\nUT Giancarlo Stanton\n\nSP Zac Gallen/Tyler Glasnow/Sonny Gray/Carlos Rodon/Shota Imanaga/Yu Darvish\n\nRP Paul Sewald/David Robertson/Yuki Matsui\n\nB Kenta Maeda/Sal Frelick/Frankie Montas/Jordan Westburg/Gavin Stone/Woo-Suk Go/J.P. Crawford",
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