bitguide on Nostr: 1/4 #Bitcoin's Total Addressable Market What is the total wealth that Bitcoin can ...
1/4 #Bitcoin's Total Addressable Market
What is the total wealth that Bitcoin can potentially attract at hyperbitcoinization? What final price does this imply? A mini-article.
Hal Finney famously predicted Bitcoin's TAM for the first time and calculated the price of $10 million per Bitcoin. But things have changed. Here is an updated analysis.
Hal wrote: "As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. [$100-$300T...] that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
There are different approaches to this, but we chose to compute the total amount of wealth that exists in various assets. At hyperbitcoinization, we expect Bitcoin to absorb the monetary premium of other stores of value that are currently in use.
The main current SOVs are gold, equities, bonds, and real estate. Others, like cars or art, have negligible market caps. We also do not include money supply to avoid double-counting (it should theoretically equal asset value).
The total market cap of all these assets, including Bitcoin, is $637.8T, with RE being by far the largest asset class.
Published at
2024-03-25 16:59:41Event JSON
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"content": "1/4 #Bitcoin's Total Addressable Market\n\nWhat is the total wealth that Bitcoin can potentially attract at hyperbitcoinization? What final price does this imply? A mini-article.\n\nHal Finney famously predicted Bitcoin's TAM for the first time and calculated the price of $10 million per Bitcoin. But things have changed. Here is an updated analysis.\n\nHal wrote: \"As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. [$100-$300T...] that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.\"\n\nThere are different approaches to this, but we chose to compute the total amount of wealth that exists in various assets. At hyperbitcoinization, we expect Bitcoin to absorb the monetary premium of other stores of value that are currently in use.\n\nThe main current SOVs are gold, equities, bonds, and real estate. Others, like cars or art, have negligible market caps. We also do not include money supply to avoid double-counting (it should theoretically equal asset value). \n\nThe total market cap of all these assets, including Bitcoin, is $637.8T, with RE being by far the largest asset class.\n\nhttps://m.primal.net/HoPB.png ",
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