I think it's unlikely (though certainly not impossible) that Farage becomes Tory leader at this juncture. There are some pretty big obstacles.
Firstly, he has to win in Clacton and the Tories have to do very badly across the country.
Secondly, the Tory leadership (which would be the current Tory leadership, until a new leadership election takes place) has to be willing to let Farage in. This is far from certain - he's not exactly popular with them.
Thirdly, he'd have to get sufficient backing from remaining Tory MPs to be a competitor in the leadership election. This not only includes the MPs who hate him, of which there are currently many, but also every MP who has ambitions for themselves. This would all depend on which MPs have been elected in such a scenario, but for Farage to be allowed to jump the queue would essentially require there to be no queue left. Possible, but not enormously likely. You'd basically need a small Tory rump which is overwhelmingly ERG but has no ERG leadership contenders.
Fourthly, the people who have bankrolled this whole miserable business would have to actually want Farage to be in such a position, rather than somebody popular who is capable of winning over the country. That would seem a strange choice, but I suppose it's possible they might not be able to find anyone else.
Finally, and this is perhaps the biggest yet most overlooked question: would he actually want to be leader of the opposition for five years? It's an actual job. And, given this scenario presumes a devastated, conflicted, despairing Tory party, a very difficult one. He'll have to give up on the moneyspinning outside jobs and devote himself fully to the day-to-day business of actual leadership. Does that sound like Farage to you? Can't say there's anything in his career to date which makes me think, yes, here's a man who wants to get stuck into the minutiae of party leadership and forego his regular life.
RolloTreadway /
npub15n…nt9fk
2024-07-01 06:23:58
in reply to nevent1q…num4
Author Public Key
npub15n7gcq8qd5a5gtvth6k57lwrxy7hjvqq78nm2vw30zj6fqg2x4hq9nt9fkPublished at
2024-07-01 06:23:58Event JSON
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"content": "I think it's unlikely (though certainly not impossible) that Farage becomes Tory leader at this juncture. There are some pretty big obstacles.\n\nFirstly, he has to win in Clacton and the Tories have to do very badly across the country.\n\nSecondly, the Tory leadership (which would be the current Tory leadership, until a new leadership election takes place) has to be willing to let Farage in. This is far from certain - he's not exactly popular with them. \n\nThirdly, he'd have to get sufficient backing from remaining Tory MPs to be a competitor in the leadership election. This not only includes the MPs who hate him, of which there are currently many, but also every MP who has ambitions for themselves. This would all depend on which MPs have been elected in such a scenario, but for Farage to be allowed to jump the queue would essentially require there to be no queue left. Possible, but not enormously likely. You'd basically need a small Tory rump which is overwhelmingly ERG but has no ERG leadership contenders.\n\nFourthly, the people who have bankrolled this whole miserable business would have to actually want Farage to be in such a position, rather than somebody popular who is capable of winning over the country. That would seem a strange choice, but I suppose it's possible they might not be able to find anyone else. \n\nFinally, and this is perhaps the biggest yet most overlooked question: would he actually want to be leader of the opposition for five years? It's an actual job. And, given this scenario presumes a devastated, conflicted, despairing Tory party, a very difficult one. He'll have to give up on the moneyspinning outside jobs and devote himself fully to the day-to-day business of actual leadership. Does that sound like Farage to you? Can't say there's anything in his career to date which makes me think, yes, here's a man who wants to get stuck into the minutiae of party leadership and forego his regular life.",
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