jetx on Nostr: (First nostr post) Today’s random macro takes: - natgas: taking under on AI capex ...

(First nostr post)

Today’s random macro takes:

- natgas: taking under on AI capex buildout, still helpful

- oil: no one excl E&Ps wants price higher, Permian managing to CF, req’s something major (geopol?) breaking for increases

- BTC mid term bull: when USGs will figure out flywheel of up BTC = up Stables = up USG T-bill buying, massive sustained increases.

- BTC mid term bear: need to figure out quantum game plan (if need crystallizes) in next 3-5 b/c transition will take years. Every pro it not breaking but consensus will be hard. Messy but can be solved.

- SBR: base case = nothing more than a token nod. Not required for continued major adoption. Banks and debt monetization biggest movers mid-term.

- Mar a lago accord = base case: no global coordinated USD deval as US lacks req’d global pull. Instead, see ally extortion payments incl maybe “century bonds”.

- NHI Disclosure: base case = more of same. Hope for more. Big if true.

- US economy: base case = stagflation until / unless UST markets, then UST-focused QE (swaps, BTFP) but no airdrop cash. But money is fungible… until then, everyone feels/is poorer and not much excess liquidity.

(Prediction != hope)