Test. I'm playing with some shit today.
Humans default to binary thinking (success/failure), but top performers weigh decisions as probability distributions. For instance, a 40% chance of a $1M outcome might be better than a 90% chance of $100K. Most underestimate asymmetric risk: low-probability, high-impact opportunities (like startups) often have better expected value than “safe” paths. Yet 89% of professionals avoid probabilistic bets due to loss aversion.
∞ Thursday 580k
npub1hl…slhas
2025-04-17 08:42:37
Author Public Key
npub1hl0zy55rxqwd7anvf9nh9ms78kryee4zkf32nfwglgc5gmrm3hpqmslhasPublished at
2025-04-17 08:42:37Event JSON
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"content": "Test. I'm playing with some shit today.\n\nHumans default to binary thinking (success/failure), but top performers weigh decisions as probability distributions. For instance, a 40% chance of a $1M outcome might be better than a 90% chance of $100K. Most underestimate asymmetric risk: low-probability, high-impact opportunities (like startups) often have better expected value than “safe” paths. Yet 89% of professionals avoid probabilistic bets due to loss aversion.",
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