📅 Original date posted:2015-08-19
📝 Original message:odinn via bitcoin-dev 於 2015-08-19 07:25 寫到:
> The big problem is
>> BIP101 being deployed as a Schism hardfork.
>
> This is certainly a problem.
>
No, BitcoinXT won't become a Schism hardfork, or may be just for a few
days, at most.
There is one, and only one scenario that BitcoinXT will win: it is
supported by major exchanges, merchants, and investors, and they request
miners to support it. When BIP101 is activated, these exchanges will
refuse to accept or exchange tokens from the old chain. Miners in the
old chain can't sell their newly generated coins and can't pay the
electricity bill. They will soon realize that they are mining fool's
gold and will be forced to switch to the new chain or sell their ASIC.
The old chain will be abandoned and has no hope to revive without a
hardfork to decrease the difficulty. The dust will settle in days if not
hours.
Will the adoption of BitcoinXT lead by miners? No, it won't. Actually,
Chinese miners who control 60% of the network has already said that they
would not adopt XT. So they must not be the leader in this revolution.
Again, miners need to make sure they could sell their bitcoin in a good
price, and that's not possible without support of exchanges and
investors.
What about that Not-Bitcoin-XT? The creator of the spoof client may stay
anonymous, but the miners cannot. 95% of the blocks come from known
entities and they have to be responsible to their actions. And again,
they have real money in stake. If bitcoin is destroyed, their ASIC
serves at best as very inefficient heaters.
So Bitcoin-XT is basically in a win-all-or-lose-all position. It all
relies on one condition: the support of major exchanges, merchants, and
investors. Their consensus is what really matters. With their consensus,
that could not be a Schism hardfork. Without their consensus, nothing
will happen.
-------
Or let me analyse in a different angle. BitcoinXT is in no way similar
to your examples of Schism hardforks. All of your examples, "ASIC-reset
hardfork", "Anti-Block-creator hardfork", and "Anti-cabal hardfork", are
hostile to the current biggest miners and will destroy their investment.
These miners have no choice but stick to the original protocol so 2
chains MUST coexist. However, BIP101 has no such effect at all and
miners may freely switch between the forks. They will always choose the
most valuable fork, so only one fork will survive.
jl2012 at xbt.hk [ARCHIVE] /
npub1kc…wjfw4
2023-06-07 15:48:16
in reply to nevent1q…fm6y
Author Public Key
npub1kc0zulxt7j4a0ayhzhrz7jk84y7tm4026qcky7w97hlfkxxap24qnwjfw4Published at
2023-06-07 15:48:16Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2015-08-19\n📝 Original message:odinn via bitcoin-dev 於 2015-08-19 07:25 寫到:\n\n\u003e The big problem is\n\u003e\u003e BIP101 being deployed as a Schism hardfork.\n\u003e \n\u003e This is certainly a problem.\n\u003e \n\n\nNo, BitcoinXT won't become a Schism hardfork, or may be just for a few \ndays, at most.\n\nThere is one, and only one scenario that BitcoinXT will win: it is \nsupported by major exchanges, merchants, and investors, and they request \nminers to support it. When BIP101 is activated, these exchanges will \nrefuse to accept or exchange tokens from the old chain. Miners in the \nold chain can't sell their newly generated coins and can't pay the \nelectricity bill. They will soon realize that they are mining fool's \ngold and will be forced to switch to the new chain or sell their ASIC. \nThe old chain will be abandoned and has no hope to revive without a \nhardfork to decrease the difficulty. The dust will settle in days if not \nhours.\n\nWill the adoption of BitcoinXT lead by miners? No, it won't. Actually, \nChinese miners who control 60% of the network has already said that they \nwould not adopt XT. So they must not be the leader in this revolution. \nAgain, miners need to make sure they could sell their bitcoin in a good \nprice, and that's not possible without support of exchanges and \ninvestors.\n\nWhat about that Not-Bitcoin-XT? The creator of the spoof client may stay \nanonymous, but the miners cannot. 95% of the blocks come from known \nentities and they have to be responsible to their actions. And again, \nthey have real money in stake. If bitcoin is destroyed, their ASIC \nserves at best as very inefficient heaters.\n\nSo Bitcoin-XT is basically in a win-all-or-lose-all position. It all \nrelies on one condition: the support of major exchanges, merchants, and \ninvestors. Their consensus is what really matters. With their consensus, \nthat could not be a Schism hardfork. Without their consensus, nothing \nwill happen.\n\n-------\n\nOr let me analyse in a different angle. BitcoinXT is in no way similar \nto your examples of Schism hardforks. All of your examples, \"ASIC-reset \nhardfork\", \"Anti-Block-creator hardfork\", and \"Anti-cabal hardfork\", are \nhostile to the current biggest miners and will destroy their investment. \nThese miners have no choice but stick to the original protocol so 2 \nchains MUST coexist. However, BIP101 has no such effect at all and \nminers may freely switch between the forks. They will always choose the \nmost valuable fork, so only one fork will survive.",
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