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Every 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin network cuts in half the number of Bitcoin issued to miners as a reward for mining the next block.
As I write this, we’re now at height 828,475, so we’re roughly 11,500 blocks, or 80 days, away from the next halving.
What will the halving do?
The halving itself is very straight forward. The reward will go down from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin.
A lot has changed since the first halving, when the network reduced the reward from 50 to 25 Bitcoin.
The first halving happened on November 28, 2012. The Bitcoin price was $12.35 USD and 75% of Bitcoin had been mined already. Only cyberpunks and people buying and selling on the Silk Road market were using Bitcoin at the time.
Today, the price is around $43,000 USD, 96.875% of Bitcoin will be mined by block 840,000 and users include states (El Salvador), corporations (MicroStrategy, Tether Holdings) and Wall Street (ETFs and trusts).
The demand for Bitcoin is rising with the recent launch of ETFs in the United States. In less than a month, the newly launched ETFs have accumulated 170,082 Bitcoin. That’s no small figure for less than a month.
Once the halving occurs, it will take 3.2 years for the Bitcoin network to issue the same 170,082 Bitcoin that the newly minted ETFs have gathered in less than a month.
The halving will reduce the supply at the same time that the demand increases and at a time when the amount of Bitcoin left is really, really small.
And by now, Bitcoiners are hodlers. 70% of Bitcoin addresses have hold their Bitcoin for over 1 year. 31% have hold their Bitcoin over 5 years and 16% have hold their Bitcoin over 10 years.
Are you bullish enough?
So what do you think will happen to the Bitcoin demand and price when the halving comes around in less than 4 months?
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Notable notes
Recommendations
Farooq
Bitcoin maximalist and a great source of signal.
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This newsletter is for educational purposes. It does not represent financial advice. Do your own research before buying Bitcoin.